Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
